Trends in Arctic sea ice extent from CMIP5, CMIP3 and observations

@article{Stroeve2012TrendsIA,
  title={Trends in Arctic sea ice extent from CMIP5, CMIP3 and observations},
  author={Julienne C. Stroeve and Vladimir M. Kattsov and Andrew P. Barrett and Mark C. Serreze and Tatiana Pavlova and Marika M. Holland and Walter N. Meier},
  journal={Geophysical Research Letters},
  year={2012},
  volume={39}
}
[1] The rapid retreat and thinning of the Arctic sea ice cover over the past several decades is one of the most striking manifestations of global climate change. Previous research revealed that the observed downward trend in September ice extent exceeded simulated trends from most models participating in the World Climate Research Programme Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 3 (CMIP3). We show here that as a group, simulated trends from the models contributing to CMIP5 are more… Expand

Figures from this paper

Faster Arctic sea ice retreat in CMIP5 than in CMIP3 due to volcanoes
The downward trend in Arctic sea ice extent is one of the most dramatic signals of climate change during recent decades. Comprehensive climate models have struggled to reproduce this, typicallyExpand
Faster Arctic Sea Ice Retreat in CMIP5 than in CMIP3 due to Volcanoes
AbstractThe downward trend in Arctic sea ice extent is one of the most dramatic signals of climate change during recent decades. Comprehensive climate models have struggled to reproduce this trend,Expand
Assessment of sea ice simulations in the CMIP5 models
Abstract. The historical simulations of sea ice during 1979 to 2005 by the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) are compared with satellite observations, Global Ice-Ocean ModelingExpand
Sea Ice Trends in Climate Models Only Accurate in Runs with Biased Global Warming
AbstractObservations indicate that the Arctic sea ice cover is rapidly retreating while the Antarctic sea ice cover is steadily expanding. State-of-the-art climate models, by contrast, typicallyExpand
Can natural variability explain the discrepancy between observed and modeled sea ice trends
Observations indicate that the Arctic sea ice cover is rapidly retreating while the Antarctic sea ice cover is steadily expanding. State-of-the-art climate models, by contrast, tend to predict aExpand
Using records from submarine, aircraft and satellites to evaluate climate model simulations of Arctic sea ice thickness
Arctic sea ice thickness distributions from models participating in the World Climate Research Programme Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) are evaluated against observations fromExpand
Arctic Sea Ice: Decadal Simulations and Future Scenarios Using BESM-OA
Important international reports and a significant number of scientific publications have reported on the abrupt decline of Arctic sea ice and its impact on the Global Climate System. In this paper,Expand
The Arctic Surface Climate in CMIP6: Status and Developments since CMIP5
Here we evaluate the sea ice, surface air temperature, and sea-level-pressure from 31 of the models used in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) for their biases, trends, andExpand
Decline of Arctic sea ice: Evaluation and weighting of CMIP5 projections
Trends of Arctic September sea ice area (SSIA) are investigated through analysis of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) data. The large range across models is reduced by weightingExpand
Arctic sea ice in CMIP5 climate model projections and their seasonal variability
This paper is focused on the seasonality change of Arctic sea ice extent (SIE) from 1979 to 2100 using newly available simulations from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). AExpand
...
1
2
3
4
5
...

References

SHOWING 1-10 OF 27 REFERENCES
Arctic sea ice decline: Faster than forecast
[1] From 1953 to 2006, Arctic sea ice extent at the end of the melt season in September has declined sharply. All models participating in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change FourthExpand
Arctic sea-ice change: a grand challenge of climate science
Abstract Over the period of modern satellite observations, Arctic sea-ice extent at the end of the melt season (September) has declined at a rate of >11% per decade, and there is evidence that theExpand
Do Climate Models Underestimate the Sensitivity of Northern Hemisphere Sea Ice Cover
AbstractThe sensitivity of Northern Hemisphere sea ice cover to global temperature change is examined in a group of climate models and in the satellite-era observations. The models are found to haveExpand
Whither Arctic sea ice? A clear signal of decline regionally, seasonally and extending beyond the satellite record
Abstract The Arctic sea ice has been pointed to as one of the first and clearest indicators of climate change. Satellite passive microwave observations from 1979 through 2005 now indicate aExpand
Inter‐annual to multi‐decadal Arctic sea ice extent trends in a warming world
[1] A climate model (CCSM4) is used to investigate the influence of anthropogenic forcing on late 20th century and early 21st century Arctic sea ice extent trends. On all timescales examined (2–50+Expand
Observations reveal external driver for Arctic sea‐ice retreat
[1] The very low summer extent of Arctic sea ice that has been observed in recent years is often casually interpreted as an early-warning sign of anthropogenic global warming. For examining theExpand
A sea ice free summer Arctic within 30 years
[1] September 2008 followed 2007 as the second sequential year with an extreme summer Arctic sea ice extent minimum. Although such a sea ice loss was not indicated until much later in the century inExpand
The sea ice mass budget of the Arctic and its future change as simulated by coupled climate models
Arctic sea ice mass budgets for the twentieth century and projected changes through the twenty-first century are assessed from 14 coupled global climate models. Large inter-model scatter inExpand
The Arctic’s rapidly shrinking sea ice cover: a research synthesis
The sequence of extreme September sea ice extent minima over the past decade suggests acceleration in the response of the Arctic sea ice cover to external forcing, hastening the ongoing transitionExpand
Forced annular variations in the 20th century Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth Assessment Report models
[1] We examine the annular mode within each hemisphere (defined here as the leading empirical orthogonal function and principal component of hemispheric sea level pressure) as simulated by theExpand
...
1
2
3
...