Travel Cadence and Epidemic Spread

@article{Streitmatter2021TravelCA,
  title={Travel Cadence and Epidemic Spread},
  author={Lauren Streitmatter and Peter Zhang},
  journal={2021 Winter Simulation Conference (WSC)},
  year={2021},
  pages={1-12}
}
In this paper, we study how interactions between populations impact epidemic spread. We extend the classical SEIR model to include both integration-based disease transmission simulation and population flow. Our model differs from existing ones by having a more detailed representation of travel patterns, without losing tractability. This allows us to study the epidemic consequence of inter-regional travel with high fidelity. In particular, we define travel cadence as a two-dimensional measure of… 

Figures from this paper

References

SHOWING 1-10 OF 15 REFERENCES

Impact of travel patterns on epidemic dynamics in heterogeneous spatial metapopulation networks.

  • Shunjiang NiW. Weng
  • Computer Science
    Physical review. E, Statistical, nonlinear, and soft matter physics
  • 2009
TLDR
The simulation results show that the occurrence probability of global outbreaks is significantly dependent on the characteristic travel distance, the characteristic waiting time, and the memory effects of human travel.

Metapopulation epidemic models with heterogeneous mixing and travel behaviour

TLDR
The proposed modelling approach introduces a theoretical framework for the study of infectious diseases spread in a population with two layers of heterogeneity relevant for the local transmission and the spatial propagation of the disease.

Multiscale, resurgent epidemics in a hierarchical metapopulation model.

TLDR
This work introduces a class of metapopulation models in which homogeneous mixing holds within local contexts, and that these contexts are embedded in a nested hierarchy of successively larger domains and allow diseases to spread stochastically.

Controlling Epidemic Spread: Reducing Economic Losses with Targeted Closures

Data on population movements can be helpful in designing targeted policy responses to curb epidemic spread. However, it is not clear how to exactly leverage such data and how valuable they might be

Seven challenges for metapopulation models of epidemics, including households models.

The effect of travel restrictions on the spread of the 2019 novel coronavirus (COVID-19) outbreak

TLDR
The results suggest that early detection, hand washing, self-isolation, and household quarantine will likely be more effective than travel restrictions at mitigating this pandemic, and sustained 90% travel restrictions to and from mainland China only modestly affect the epidemic trajectory unless combined with a 50% or higher reduction of transmission in the community.

Delaying the COVID‐19 epidemic in Australia: evaluating the effectiveness of international travel bans

TLDR
The effects of travel bans in the Australia context are evaluated and the epidemic until May 2020 is projected, indicating the need for maintaining or improving on the control measures to slow down the virus.

The effectiveness of full and partial travel bans against COVID-19 spread in Australia for travellers from China during and after the epidemic peak in China

TLDR
The modelled impact without a travel ban implemented on February the 1st shows the epidemic would continue for more than a year resulting in more than 2000 cases and about 400 deaths, and the impact of a partial lifting of a ban is minimal, and may be safe to consider.

Assessing the Impact of Reduced Travel on Exportation Dynamics of Novel Coronavirus Infection (COVID-19)

TLDR
The impact of the drastic reduction in travel volume within mainland China in January and February 2020 was quantified with respect to reports of novel coronavirus (COVID-19) infections outside China to estimate the impact of travel reduction on three epidemiological outcome measures.