Transmission potential of smallpox in contemporary populations

@article{Gani2001TransmissionPO,
  title={Transmission potential of smallpox in contemporary populations},
  author={Raymond Gani and Steve Leach},
  journal={Nature},
  year={2001},
  volume={414},
  pages={748-751}
}
Despite eradication, smallpox still presents a risk to public health whilst laboratory stocks of virus remain. One factor crucial to any assessment of this risk is R0, the average number of secondary cases infected by each primary case. However, recently applied estimates have varied too widely (R0 from 1.5 to >20) to be of practical use, and often appear to disregard contingent factors such as socio-economic conditions and herd immunity. Here we use epidemic modelling to show a more consistent… 

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