Transmission potential of smallpox: estimates based on detailed data from an outbreak.

  title={Transmission potential of smallpox: estimates based on detailed data from an outbreak.},
  author={Martin Eichner and Klaus Dietz},
  journal={American journal of epidemiology},
  volume={158 2},
Recent discussions on the use of variola virus by bioterrorists have rekindled interest in the parameters that govern the transmissibility of smallpox. Here, the authors estimate by maximum likelihood the parameters of the spread of smallpox from historical data on an epidemic in 1967 in the town of Abakaliki, Nigeria, afflicting a religious group that refused vaccination. According to the authors' estimates, 79.9% (95% confidence interval (CI): 63.6, 87.9) of the infectious contacts occurred… CONTINUE READING

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