Toward Risk Assessment of Large-Impact and Rare Events

  title={Toward Risk Assessment of Large-Impact and Rare Events},
  author={Douglas W. Hubbard},
MAY/JUNE 2010 ■ 1540-7993/10/$26.00 © 2010 IEEE ■ COPUBLISHED BY THE IEEE COMPUTER AND RELIABILITY SOCIETIES 21 L arge-impact, hard-to-predict, and rare (LHR) events are the leading causes of change in complex systems, such as the global financial system, according to Nassim Taleb. People concoct explanations for such events after they’ve occurred, making them seem less surprising and more predictable than they really are. This hindsight bias causes people to underestimate risks with complex… CONTINUE READING
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