Too Bad It Isn't True

  title={Too Bad It Isn't True},
  author={Janathan Baron},
  journal={Medical Decision Making},
  pages={107 - 107}
  • J. Baron
  • Published 1 April 1994
  • Psychology
  • Medical Decision Making
Although the heuristic is not true, there are some things that can be relied on. First, a negative result from a 100% sensitive test will reliably rule out disease, and a positive result from a 100% specific test will be perfectly reliable in ruling in. Unfortunately, there are few such tests available, so this in itself is not a very useful clinical rule. Second, as Boyko points out, for tests with at most a given sensitivity, the one with the highest specificity will be best at ruling in a… 

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Ruling Out or Ruling In Disease with the Most sensitiue or Specific Diagnostic Test

  • E. Boyko
  • Medicine
    Medical decision making : an international journal of the Society for Medical Decision Making
  • 1994
The author demonstrates that the greatest clinical utility is not always achieved by using the most specific test in a rule-in decision or the most sensitive test in an rule-out decision.

Uncertainty in Bayes

  • J. Baron
  • Mathematics
    Medical decision making : an international journal of the Society for Medical Decision Making
  • 1994
These results imply that for suitability good tests, probability revision in certain definable ranges of prior probability may be so strongly affected by errors in the estimations of both the prior probability and the operating characteristics that the posterior probabilities may be unstable in practice.

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To determine why many diagnostic tests have proved to be valueless after optimistic introduction into medical practice, we reviewed a series of investigations and identified two major problems that

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Three heuristics that are employed in making judgements under uncertainty are described: representativeness, availability of instances or scenarios, which is often employed when people are asked to assess the frequency of a class or the plausibility of a particular development.