• Corpus ID: 1113183

Title Modeling and assessing climatic trends

  title={Title Modeling and assessing climatic trends},
  author={Peter F. Craigmile},
Climate studies often fit linear trends to data. In many cases simplifying assumptions such as independent errors and constant variance are used. We review a variety of approaches to estimating linear trends, and illustrate with US temperature data how oversimplified assumptions may lead to false significance. We outline a variety of methods to fit nonlinear trend models. Using the Berkeley Earth global data set we show that a bent cable fit is better than a linear fit for this series. We also… 

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