• Corpus ID: 249461599

Time-varying Cost of Distancing: Distancing Fatigue, Holidays and Lockdowns

@inproceedings{Carnehl2022TimevaryingCO,
  title={Time-varying Cost of Distancing: Distancing Fatigue, Holidays and Lockdowns},
  author={Christoph Carnehl and Satoshi Fukuda and Nenad Kos},
  year={2022}
}

• Christoph Carnehl, S. Fukuda, Nenad Kos
• Published 8 June 2022
• Economics

We study an SIR model with endogenous behavior and a time-varying cost of distancing. We show that a steep increase in distancing cost is necessary for a second wave of an epidemic to arise. As a special case of the model with changing cost, we study distancing fatigue—the distancing cost increases in past distancing—and show that it cannot generate a second wave. Moreover, we characterize the change in the distancing cost necessary for the slope of prevalence to change its sign. This characterization informs policymakers: (i) of the required strictness of mitigation policies to cease the increase of prevalence, (ii) when and how policies can be lifted to avoid a second wave, and (iii) whether public holidays are likely to generate another wave of the epidemic. Finally, we illustrate the implementation of desirable time-varying transmission rates through time-varying distancing cost with endogenous equilibrium distancing.