Time evolution of predictability of epidemics on networks

  title={Time evolution of predictability of epidemics on networks},
  author={Petter Holme and Taro Takaguchi},
  journal={Physical review. E, Statistical, nonlinear, and soft matter physics},
  volume={91 4},
  • Petter Holme, T. Takaguchi
  • Published 15 December 2014
  • Environmental Science
  • Physical review. E, Statistical, nonlinear, and soft matter physics
Epidemic outbreaks of new pathogens, or known pathogens in new populations, cause a great deal of fear because they are hard to predict. For theoretical models of disease spreading, on the other hand, quantities characterizing the outbreak converge to deterministic functions of time. Our goal in this paper is to shed some light on this apparent discrepancy. We measure the diversity of (and, thus, the predictability of) outbreak sizes and extinction times as functions of time given different… 

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