Thinking through uncertainty: Nonconsequential reasoning and choice

@article{Shafir1992ThinkingTU,
  title={Thinking through uncertainty: Nonconsequential reasoning and choice},
  author={Eldar Shafir and Amos Tversky},
  journal={Cognitive Psychology},
  year={1992},
  volume={24},
  pages={449-474}
}
When thinking under uncertainty, people often do not consider appropriately each of the relevant branches of a decision tree, as required by consequentialism. As a result they sometimes violate Savage's sure-thing principle. In the Prisoner's Dilemma game, for example, many subjects compete when they know that the opponent has competed and when they know that the opponent has cooperated, but cooperate when they do not know the opponent's response. Newcomb's Problem and Wason's selection task… Expand
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The findings show that people do not violate the sure thing principle in repeated gambles, and the validity of alleged violations in other paradigms is discussed. Expand
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