Theory of Probability

  title={Theory of Probability},
  author={L. M. M.-T.},
Exponential inequalities for martingales and asymptotic properties of the free energy of directed polymers in a random environment
We first obtain exponential inequalities for martingales. Let be a sequence of martingale differences relative to a filtration and set Sn=X1+...+Xn. We prove that if for some [delta]>0,Q>=1, K>0 and
BFpack: Flexible Bayes Factor Testing of Scientific Theories in R
A new R-package called BFpack is presented that contains functions for Bayes factor hypothesis testing for the many common testing problems and includes novel tools for Bayesian confirmatory testing.
Bayesian Analysis of Cancer Data Using a 4-Component Exponential Mixture Model
A novel four-component mixture model under Bayesian estimation is preferred to estimate the average number of incidences and death of both genders in different age groups in Pakistan and it is noted from analysis of real data that the Bayes estimates under LINEX loss assuming Jeffreys' prior is more efficient for the no.
Fundamental physics with ESPRESSO: Precise limit on variations in the fine-structure constant towards the bright quasar HE0515-4414
  • Michael T. Murphy, P. Molaro, +40 authors F. Zerbi
  • Physics
    Astronomy & Astrophysics
  • 2021
The strong intervening absorption system at redshift 1.15 towards the very bright quasar HE 0515−4414 is the most studied absorber for measuring possible cosmological variations in the fine-structure
Matching Bayesian and frequentist coverage probabilities when using an approximate data covariance matrix
Observational astrophysics consists of making inferences about the Universe by comparing data and models. The credible intervals placed on model parameters are often as important as the maximum a
Premovement inhibition can protect motor actions from interference by response‐irrelevant sensory stimulation
It is concluded that preparatory inhibition may be an adaptive strategy which can serve to protect the prepared motor action from external interference and have significant theoretical implications for preparatory processes.
Crisis Date Identification and Testing for Contagion across Stock Markets
This paper studies whether the choice of the crisis start dates affects the magnitude of contagion estimates. Contagion models generally use exogenously determined crisis start date by relying on
MAJA: A two-region DSGE model for Sweden and its main trading partners
The Swedish economy is strongly dependent on global economic developments, which is reflected in generally strong empirical relationships between Swedish and foreign macroeconomic variables. It is,
On Accuracy and Coherence with Infinite Opinion Sets
The necessary results are established to extend the classic accuracy argument for probabilism to certain classes of infinite sets of propositions including countably infinite partitions.