Theory and Evidence in International Conflict: A Response to de Marchi, Gelpi, and Grynaviski

  title={Theory and Evidence in International Conflict: A Response to de Marchi, Gelpi, and Grynaviski},
  author={Nathaniel N. Beck and Gary King and Langche Zeng},
  journal={American Political Science Review},
  pages={379 - 389}
In this article, we show that de Marchi, Gelpi, and Grynaviski's substantive analyses are fully consistent with our prior theoretical conjecture about international conflict. We note that they also agree with our main methodological point that out-of-sample forecasting performance should be a primary standard used to evaluate international conflict studies. However, we demonstrate that all other methodological conclusions drawn by de Marchi, Gelpi, and Gryanaviski are false. For example, by… 

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