The use of Bayes factors for model selection in structural reliability presented

@inproceedings{Noortwijk2002TheUO,
  title={The use of Bayes factors for model selection in structural reliability presented},
  author={Jan M. van Noortwijk and Heinz Kalk and Michel Duits},
  year={2002}
}
Probabilistic design of structures is usually based on estimates of a design load with a high average return period. Design loads are often estimated using classical statistical methods. A shortcoming of this approach is that statistical uncertainties are not taken into account. In this paper, a method based on Bayesian statistics is presented. Using Bayes' theorem , the prior distribution representing information about the uncertainty of the statistical parameters can be updated to the… CONTINUE READING