The uncertain future of the Antarctic Ice Sheet

  title={The uncertain future of the Antarctic Ice Sheet},
  author={Frank Pattyn and Mathieu Morlighem},
  pages={1331 - 1335}
The Antarctic Ice Sheet is losing mass at an accelerating pace, and ice loss will likely continue over the coming decades and centuries. Some regions of the ice sheet may reach a tipping point, potentially leading to rates of sea level rise at least an order of magnitude larger than those observed now, owing to strong positive feedbacks in the ice-climate system. How fast and how much Antarctica will contribute to sea level remains uncertain, but multimeter sea level rise is likely for a mean… 
Ice sheets, glaciers, and sea level
The Southern Ocean and its interaction with the Antarctic Ice Sheet
As climate warms and atmospheric circulation changes, there will be follow-on changes in the ocean circulation and temperature, which will affect the pace of mass loss of the Antarctic Ice Sheet.
A 15-year circum-Antarctic iceberg calving dataset derived from continuous satellite observations
Abstract. Iceberg calving is the main process that facilitates the dynamic mass loss of ice sheets into the ocean, which accounts for approximately half of the mass loss of the Antarctic ice sheet.
The ice flux to the Lambert Glacier and Amery Ice Shelf along the Chinese inland traverse and implications for mass balance of the drainage basins, East Antarctica
Study of the mass balance of the Antarctic Ice Sheet is critical to estimate its potential contribution to global sea-level rise in the future. As the largest drainage system, the Lambert
Controls on Larsen C Ice Shelf Retreat From a 60‐Year Satellite Data Record
Rapid retreat of the Larsen A and B ice shelves has provided important clues about the ice shelf destabilization processes. The Larsen C Ice Shelf, the largest remaining ice shelf on the Antarctic
Sea-Level Rise: From Global Perspectives to Local Services
Coastal areas are highly diverse, ecologically rich, regions of key socio-economic activity, and are particularly sensitive to sea-level change. Over most of the 20th century, global mean sea level
Surface melt on the Shackleton Ice Shelf, East Antarctica (2003–2021)
. Many ice shelves in Antarctica experience surface melt each summer, with potentially severe consequences for sea level rise. However, large interannual and regional variability in surface melt
Nunataks as barriers to ice flow: implications for palaeo ice sheet reconstructions
Abstract. Numerical models predict that discharge from the polar ice sheets will become the largest contributor to sea-level rise over the coming centuries. However, the predicted amount of ice
Future Antarctic snow accumulation trend is dominated by atmospheric synoptic-scale events
Over the last century, the increase in snow accumulation has partly mitigated the total dynamic Antarctic Ice Sheet mass loss. However, the mechanisms behind this increase are poorly understood. Here
The stability of present-day Antarctic grounding lines — Part A: No indication of marine ice sheet instability in the current geometry
Theoretical and numerical work has firmly established that grounding lines of marine-type ice sheets can enter phases of irreversible advance and retreat driven by the marine ice sheet instability


Collapse of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet after local destabilization of the Amundsen Basin
Simulation of the long-term evolution of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet shows that in the Parallel Ice Sheet Model, a local destabilization causes a complete disintegration of the marine ice in West Antarctica, causing a global sea-level rise of about 3 m.
The multi-millennial Antarctic commitment to future sea-level rise
A coupled ice-sheet/ice-shelf model is used to show that if atmospheric warming exceeds 1.5 to 2 degrees Celsius above present, collapse of the major Antarctic ice shelves triggers a centennial- to millennial-scale response of the Antarctic ice sheet in which enhanced viscous flow produces a long-term commitment to sea-level rise.
Trends and connections across the Antarctic cryosphere
This paper discusses how Antarctic ice has changed over recent decades, and how these changes have been recorded in satellite observations.
The Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets under 1.5 °C global warming
Even if anthropogenic warming were constrained to less than 2 °C above pre-industrial, the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets will continue to lose mass this century, with rates similar to those
Contribution of Antarctica to past and future sea-level rise
A model coupling ice sheet and climate dynamics—including previously underappreciated processes linking atmospheric warming with hydrofracturing of buttressing ice shelves and structural collapse of marine-terminating ice cliffs—is calibrated against Pliocene and Last Interglacial sea-level estimates and applied to future greenhouse gas emission scenarios.
Potential sea-level rise from Antarctic ice-sheet instability constrained by observations
It is suggested that upper-bound estimates from low-resolution models and physical arguments are implausible under current understanding of physical mechanisms and potential triggers of marine-ice-sheet instability.
Extensive dynamic thinning on the margins of the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets
Many glaciers along the margins of the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets are accelerating and, for this reason, contribute increasingly to global sea-level rise. Globally, ice losses contribute ∼1.8
Slowdown in Antarctic mass loss from solid Earth and sea-level feedbacks
A new global simulation of Antarctic evolution at high spatiotemporal resolution is presented that captures solid-Earth processes stabilizing and destabilizing ice sheets and demonstrates how in Antarctica, TG is particularly prone to negative feedback from SAL and elastic uplift.
Uncertainty quantification of the multi-centennial response of the Antarctic ice sheet to climate change
Abstract. Ice loss from the Antarctic ice sheet (AIS) is expected to become the major contributor to sea level in the next centuries. Projections of the AIS response to climate change based on