The seasonal forecast of electricity demand : A hierarchical Bayesian model with climatological weather generator

@inproceedings{Pezzulli2006TheSF,
  title={The seasonal forecast of electricity demand : A hierarchical Bayesian model with climatological weather generator},
  author={Sergio Pezzulli and Patrizio Frederic and Shanti Majithia and S. A. Sabbagh and Emily Black and Rowan Sutton and David B. Stephenson},
  year={2006}
}
In this paper we focus on the one year ahead prediction of the electricity peak-demand daily trajectory during the winter season in Central England and Wales. We define a Bayesian hierarchical model for predicting the winter trajectories and present results based on the past observed weather. Thanks to the flexibility of the Bayesian approach, we are able to produce the marginal posterior distributions of all the predictands of interest. This is a fundamental progress with respect to the… CONTINUE READING

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