The role of financial variableS in PredicTing economic acTiviTy

@inproceedings{Espinoza2009TheRO,
  title={The role of financial variableS in PredicTing economic acTiviTy},
  author={Raphael Andr{\'e} Espinoza and Fabio Fornari and Marco J. Lombardi},
  year={2009}
}
This paper should not be reported as representing the views of the IMF, the ECB or the Eurosystem. The US business cycle has been found to lead the European cycle by a few quarters, a piece of information which previous research has fruitfully used to forecast euro area GDP. In this paper, we investigate whether selected financial variables, either from the US or the euro area, carry further information. We use vector autoregressions (VARs) which include the US and the euro area GDPs as a… CONTINUE READING

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