The relationship between individual expectations and behaviors: Mortality expectations and smoking decisions

  title={The relationship between individual expectations and behaviors: Mortality expectations and smoking decisions},
  author={Ahmed Khwaja and Frank A. Sloan and Seockhoon Chung},
  journal={Journal of Risk and Uncertainty},
Using data from the Health and Retirement Study, we assess the accuracy of subjective beliefs about mortality and objectively estimated probabilities for individuals in the same sample. Overall, subjective beliefs and objective probabilities are very close. However, there are differences conditional on behaviors, with current smokers being relatively optimistic and never smokers relatively pessimistic in their assessments. In the aggregate, individuals accurately predict longevity, but at the… 
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Can Subjective Mortality Expectations and Stated Preferences Explain Varying Consumption and Saving Behaviors Among the Elderly?
  • M. Salm
  • Economics
    SSRN Electronic Journal
  • 2006
This study investigates how subjective mortality expectations and heterogeneity in time and risk preferences affect the consumption and saving behavior of the elderly. Previous studies find that the
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The results indicate that subjective health expectations do contain additional information that is not incorporated in subjective mortality expectations and that the rational expectations assumption cannot be rejected for subjective health Expectations.
Subjective Mortality Expectations and Consumption and Saving Behaviours Among the Elderly
Life expectancy is an important factor that individuals have to take into account for saving and consumption choices. The life-cycle model of consumption and saving behaviour predicts that


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In the Health and Retirement Study respondents were asked about the chances they would live to 75 or to 85. We analyze these responses to determine if they behave like probabilities of survival, if
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It is found that individuals with a higher life expectancy and lower time preference are more likely to undergo cancer screening and less risk averse individuals tend to be morelikely to undergo testing.
Do smokers understand the mortality effects of smoking? Evidence from the Health and Retirement Survey.
It is suggested that at least heavy smokers significantly underestimate their risk of premature mortality and expectancies about their chances of reaching age 75 were nearly twice as high as actuarial predictions.
The Predictive Validity of Subjective Probabilities of Survival
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The Rationality of Retirement Expectations and the Role of New Information
This paper tests the rationality of retirement expectations, controlling for sample selection and reporting biases. We find that retirement expectations in the Health and Retirement Study are
Expectations, Life Expectancy, and Economic Behavior
Unlike price expectations, which are central to macroeconomic theory and have been examined extensively using survey data, formation of individuals' horizons, which are central to the theory of
Job Loss Expectations, Realizations, and Household Consumption Behavior
Although the theoretical importance of expectations in decision-making is well known to economists, only a few empirical papers investigate the impact of individual subjective expectations on