The reference class problem is your problem too

@article{Hjek2006TheRC,
  title={The reference class problem is your problem too},
  author={Alan H{\'a}jek},
  journal={Synthese},
  year={2006},
  volume={156},
  pages={563-585}
}
The reference class problem arises when we want to assign a probability to a proposition (or sentence, or event) X, which may be classified in various ways, yet its probability can change depending on how it is classified. The problem is usually regarded as one specifically for the frequentist interpretation of probability and is often considered fatal to it. I argue that versions of the classical, logical, propensity and subjectivist interpretations also fall prey to their own variants of the… CONTINUE READING
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