The proportionality of global warming to cumulative carbon emissions

  title={The proportionality of global warming to cumulative carbon emissions},
  author={H. Damon Matthews and Nathan P. Gillett and Peter A. Stott and Kirsten Zickfeld},
The global temperature response to increasing atmospheric CO2 is often quantified by metrics such as equilibrium climate sensitivity and transient climate response. These approaches, however, do not account for carbon cycle feedbacks and therefore do not fully represent the net response of the Earth system to anthropogenic CO2 emissions. Climate–carbon modelling experiments have shown that: (1) the warming per unit CO2 emitted does not depend on the background CO2 concentration; (2) the total… 
Is the climate response to CO2 emissions path dependent?
Recent studies with coupled climate‐carbon cycle models suggest that global mean temperature change is proportional to cumulative CO2 emissions, independent of the timing of those emissions. This
The origin and limits of the near proportionality between climate warming and cumulative CO2 emissions.
AbstractThe transient climate response to cumulative CO2 emissions (TCRE) is a useful metric of climate warming that directly relates the cause of climate change (cumulative carbon emissions) to the
The Sensitivity of the Proportionality between Temperature Change and Cumulative CO2 Emissions to Ocean Mixing
The ratio of global mean surface air temperature change to cumulative CO2 emissions, referred to as transient climate response to cumulative CO2 emissions (TCRE), has been shown to be approximately
Uncertainty in carbon budget estimates due to internal climate variability
Remaining carbon budget specifies the cap on global cumulative CO2 emissions from the present-day onwards that would be in line with limiting global warming to a specific maximum level. In the
Constraining the Ratio of Global Warming to Cumulative CO2 Emissions Using CMIP5 Simulations
AbstractThe ratio of warming to cumulative emissions of carbon dioxide has been shown to be approximately independent of time and emissions scenarios and directly relates emissions to temperature. It
Quantifying the Limits of a Linear Temperature Response to Cumulative CO2 Emissions
AbstractRecent studies have shown that the transient climate response to cumulative carbon emissions (TCRE) of the global temperature can be well approximated by a constant value for cumulative
Modelling the climate response to anthropogenic carbon dioxide emissions: time-dependent processes, commitment, and reversibility
This thesis gives insight into key aspects of the climate system response to anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions. One characteristic is an approximately constant global mean surface air
Dependency of climate change and carbon cycle on CO2 emission pathways
Previous research has indicated that the response of globally average temperature is approximately proportional to cumulative CO2 emissions, yet evidence of the robustness of this relationship over a
Extending the relationship between global warming and cumulative carbon emissions to multi-millennial timescales
The transient climate response to cumulative carbon emissions (TCRE) is a highly policy-relevant quantity in climate science. The TCRE suggests that peak warming is linearly proportional to
Climate System Responses to a Common Emission Budget of Carbon Dioxide
AbstractGlobal warming as quantified by surface air temperature has been shown to be approximately linearly related to cumulative emissions of CO2. Here, a coupled state-of-the-art Earth system model


Warming caused by cumulative carbon emissions towards the trillionth tonne
It is found that the peak warming caused by a given cumulative carbon dioxide emission is better constrained than the warming response to a stabilization scenario, and policy targets based on limiting cumulative emissions of carbon dioxide are likely to be more robust to scientific uncertainty than emission-rate or concentration targets.
Climate-carbon cycle feedback analysis: Results from the C
Eleven coupled climate–carbon cycle models used a common protocol to study the coupling between climate change and the carbon cycle. The models were forced by historical emissions and the
Insensitivity of global warming potentials to carbon dioxide emission scenarios
GLOBAL warming potentials for radiatively active trace gases (such as methane and chlorofluorocarbons) have generally been expressed1–2 relative to the time-integrated climate forcing per unit
Irreversible climate change due to carbon dioxide emissions
The climate change that takes place due to increases in carbon dioxide concentration is largely irreversible for 1,000 years after emissions stop, showing that thermal expansion of the warming ocean provides a conservative lower limit to irreversible global average sea level rise.
Lifetime of Anthropogenic Climate Change: Millennial Time Scales of Potential CO2 and Surface Temperature Perturbations
Abstract Multimillennial simulations with a fully coupled climate–carbon cycle model are examined to assess the persistence of the climatic impacts of anthropogenic CO2 emissions. It is found that
Emissions targets for CO2 stabilization as modified by carbon cycle feedbacks
Carbon cycle feedbacks will have a direct effect on anthropogenic emissions required to stabilize CO 2 in the atmosphere. In this study, I used an intermediate complexity coupled climate-carbon model
Terrestrial Carbon Cycle Dynamics under Recent and Future Climate Change
Abstract The behavior of the terrestrial carbon cycle under historical and future climate change is examined using the University of Victoria Earth System Climate Model, now coupled to a dynamic
Alternatives to the Global Warming Potential for Comparing Climate Impacts of Emissions of Greenhouse Gases
The Global Warming Potential (GWP) is used within the Kyoto Protocol to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change as a metric for weighting the climatic impact of emissions of
Stabilizing climate requires near‐zero emissions
Current international climate mitigation efforts aim to stabilize levels of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. However, human‐induced climate warming will continue for many centuries, even after
Transient climate response estimated from radiative forcing and observed temperature change
[1] Observations and simulations (using the HadCM3 AOGCM) of time-dependent twentieth-century climate change indicate a linear relationship F = rDT between radiative forcing F and global mean surface