The projected timing of climate departure from recent variability

  title={The projected timing of climate departure from recent variability},
  author={Camilo Mora and Abby G. Frazier and Ryan Longman and Rachel Dacks and Maya M. Walton and Eric J. Tong and Joseph J. Sanchez and Lauren R Kaiser and Yuko O. Stender and James M. Anderson and Christine M. Ambrosino and Iria Fern{\'a}ndez-Silva and Louise M. Giuseffi and Thomas W. Giambelluca},
Ecological and societal disruptions by modern climate change are critically determined by the time frame over which climates shift beyond historical analogues. Here we present a new index of the year when the projected mean climate of a given location moves to a state continuously outside the bounds of historical variability under alternative greenhouse gas emissions scenarios. Using 1860 to 2005 as the historical period, this index has a global mean of 2069 (±18 years s.d.) for near-surface… 
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