The projected timing of climate departure from recent variability

  title={The projected timing of climate departure from recent variability},
  author={C. Mora and A. G. Frazier and Ryan J. Longman and R. Dacks and M. M. Walton and Eric J. Tong and J. J. Sanchez and L. Kaiser and Y. Stender and J. Anderson and Christine M. Ambrosino and I. Fernandez-Silva and L. Giuseffi and T. Giambelluca},
  • C. Mora, A. G. Frazier, +11 authors T. Giambelluca
  • Published 2013
  • Environmental Science, Medicine
  • Nature
  • Ecological and societal disruptions by modern climate change are critically determined by the time frame over which climates shift beyond historical analogues. Here we present a new index of the year when the projected mean climate of a given location moves to a state continuously outside the bounds of historical variability under alternative greenhouse gas emissions scenarios. Using 1860 to 2005 as the historical period, this index has a global mean of 2069 (±18 years s.d.) for near-surface… CONTINUE READING
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