The professional foul in football: Tactics and deterrents

  title={The professional foul in football: Tactics and deterrents},
  author={Mike Wright and Nobuyoshi Hirotsu},
  journal={Journal of the Operational Research Society},
  • M. WrightN. Hirotsu
  • Published 1 March 2003
  • Economics
  • Journal of the Operational Research Society
We demonstrate the use of a model calibrated using data from every 1999–2000 Premiership match to determine the circumstances under which a player ‘should’ commit a professional foul in order to benefit his team. The results are illustrated using two hypothetical matches, one between evenly balanced teams and one where one of the teams is much stronger than the other. These circumstances turn out to be wide-ranging and, in some cases, somewhat counterintuitive. The many drawbacks of the current… 

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