The probable and the possible at 12 months: intuitive reasoning about the uncertain future.

@article{CesanaArlotti2012ThePA,
  title={The probable and the possible at 12 months: intuitive reasoning about the uncertain future.},
  author={Nicol{\'o} Cesana-Arlotti and Erno T{\'e}gl{\'a}s and Luca L. Bonatti},
  journal={Advances in child development and behavior},
  year={2012},
  volume={43},
  pages={1-25}
}
How do infants predict the next future event, when such a prediction requires estimating the event's probability? The literature suggests that adult humans often fail this task because their probability estimates are affected by heuristics and biases or because they can reason about the frequency of classes of events but not about the probability of single events. Recent evidence suggests instead that already at 12 months infants have an intuitive notion of probability that applies to single… CONTINUE READING

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