The predictive accuracy of intertemporal-choice models.

@article{Arfer2015ThePA,
  title={The predictive accuracy of intertemporal-choice models.},
  author={Kodi B. Arfer and Christian C. Luhmann},
  journal={The British journal of mathematical and statistical psychology},
  year={2015},
  volume={68 2},
  pages={326-41}
}
How do people choose between a smaller reward available sooner and a larger reward available later? Past research has evaluated models of intertemporal choice by measuring goodness of fit or identifying which decision-making anomalies they can accommodate. An alternative criterion for model quality, which is partly antithetical to these standard criteria, is predictive accuracy. We used cross-validation to examine how well 10 models of intertemporal choice could predict behaviour in a 100-trial… CONTINUE READING

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