The poleward migration of the location of tropical cyclone maximum intensity

  title={The poleward migration of the location of tropical cyclone maximum intensity},
  author={James P. Kossin and Kerry A. Emanuel and Gabriel A. Vecchi},
Temporally inconsistent and potentially unreliable global historical data hinder the detection of trends in tropical cyclone activity. This limits our confidence in evaluating proposed linkages between observed trends in tropical cyclones and in the environment. Here we mitigate this difficulty by focusing on a metric that is comparatively insensitive to past data uncertainty, and identify a pronounced poleward migration in the average latitude at which tropical cyclones have achieved their… 
Roles of interbasin frequency changes in the poleward shifts of the maximum intensity location of tropical cyclones
An observed poleward migration in the average latitude at which tropical cyclones (TCs) achieved their lifetime-maximum intensities (LMIs) was previously explained by changes in the mean meridional
Weak Tropical Cyclones Dominate the Poleward Migration of the Annual Mean Location of Lifetime Maximum Intensity of Northwest Pacific Tropical Cyclones since 1980
AbstractThe poleward migration of the annual mean location of tropical cyclone (TC) lifetime maximum intensity (LMI) has been identified in the major TC basins of the globe over the past 30 years,
A Recent Reversal in the Poleward Shift of Western North Pacific Tropical Cyclones
  • Y. Sun, T. Li, Y. Hu
  • Environmental Science
    Geophysical Research Letters
  • 2018
Recent studies have revealed a global, poleward migration trend of tropical cyclones (TCs) in terms of annual‐averaged latitude of lifetime maximum intensity under the global warming. The TCs in the
Concurrent Changes to Hadley Circulation and the Meridional Distribution of Tropical Cyclones
Poleward trends in seasonal-mean latitudes of tropical cyclones (TCs) have been identified in direct observations from 1980 to present. Paleoclimate reconstructions also indicate poleward-equatorward
Global increase in major tropical cyclone exceedance probability over the past four decades
Here the homogenized global TC intensity record is extended to the 39-y period 1979–2017, and statistically significant increases are identified, consistent with expectations based on theoretical understanding and trends identified in numerical simulations in warming scenarios.
Latitudinal Change of Tropical Cyclone Maximum Intensity in the Western North Pacific
This study obtained the latitude where tropical cyclones (TCs) show maximum intensity and applied statistical change-point analysis on the time series data of the average annual values. The analysis
Recent poleward shift of tropical cyclone formation linked to Hadley cell expansion
Recent research indicates that the annual-mean locations of tropical cyclones have migrated toward higher latitudes. Concurrently, an anthropogenically forced tropical expansion has been observed,
Poleward Migration of Tropical Cyclone Activity in the Southern Hemisphere: Perspectives and Challenges for the Built Environment in Australia
With statistically significant trends suggesting that tropical cyclones are migrating poleward in the Southern Hemisphere, specifically in the South Pacific Ocean basin, it is important to review the
Enhanced understanding of poleward migration of tropical cyclone genesis
The known trends of poleward migration for the tropical cyclone (TC) genesis in both hemispheres are discussed from different perspectives. It is shown that the poleward migration rate of the
A Physically Based Climatology of the Occurrence and Intensification of Australian East Coast Lows
The subtropical part of the eastern Australian seaboard experiences intense cyclonic activity. The severe damage caused by the intense storms in the region, known as east coast lows (ECLs), has


Trend Analysis with a New Global Record of Tropical Cyclone Intensity
The historical global ‘‘best track’’ records of tropical cyclones extend back to the mid-nineteenth century in some regions, but formal analysis of these records is encumbered by temporal
Cluster analysis of tropical cyclone tracks in the Southern Hemisphere
A probabilistic clustering method is used to describe various aspects of tropical cyclone (TC) tracks in the Southern Hemisphere, for the period 1969–2008. A total of 7 clusters are examined: three
Influence of Tropical Tropopause Layer Cooling on Atlantic Hurricane Activity
AbstractVirtually all metrics of Atlantic tropical cyclone activity show substantial increases over the past two decades. It is argued here that cooling near the tropical tropopause and the
The expanding tropics: a critical assessment of the observational and modeling studies
This review provides comprehensive coverage of the tropical expansion literature to date. The primary focus is on the annual‐ and zonal‐mean behavior of the phenomenon. An idealized model that
Tropical Cyclone Activity Downscaled from NOAA‐CIRES Reanalysis, 1908–1958
A recently developed technique for deducing tropical cyclone activity from global reanalyses and climate models is applied to a reanalysis of the global atmosphere during the period 1908–1958. This
Increasing destructiveness of tropical cyclones over the past 30 years
An index of the potential destructiveness of hurricanes based on the total dissipation of power, integrated over the lifetime of the cyclone, is defined and shows that this index has increased markedly since the mid-1970s, due to both longer storm lifetimes and greater storm intensities.
The Interannual Variability of Tropical Cyclones
Abstract This paper examines the interannual variability of tropical cyclones in each of the earth’s cyclone basins using data from 1985 to 2003. The data are first analyzed using a Monte Carlo
Quantifying Interagency Differences in Tropical Cyclone Best-Track Wind Speed Estimates
Abstract Numerous agencies around the world perform postseason analysis of tropical cyclone position and intensity, a process described as “best tracking.” However, this process is temporally and
Climate Modulation of North Atlantic Hurricane Tracks
The variability of North Atlantic tropical storm and hurricane tracks, and its relationship to climate variability, is explored. Tracks from the North Atlantic hurricane database for the period
Documentation o f a Highly ENSO-Related SST Région in thé Equatorial Pacific
A new ENSO SST index is documented that is strongly correlated to the core ENSO phenomenon. The SST anomaly in much ofthe east-central and eastern tropical Pacific is closely related to ENSO.