The overconfidence effect in social prediction.

@article{Dunning1990TheOE,
  title={The overconfidence effect in social prediction.},
  author={D. Covalt Dunning and Daniel W. Griffin and J D Milojkovic and Lee Ross},
  journal={Journal of personality and social psychology},
  year={1990},
  volume={58 4},
  pages={568-81}
}
In five studies with overlapping designs and intents, subjects predicted a specific peer's responses to a variety of stimulus situations, each of which offered a pair of mutually exclusive and exhaustive response alternatives. Each prediction was accompanied by a subjective probability estimate reflecting the subjects' confidence in its accuracy--a measure validated in Study 5 by having subjects choose whether to "gamble" on the accuracy of their prediction or on the outcome of a simple… CONTINUE READING

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