The no miracles argument without the base rate fallacy

@article{Dawid2017TheNM,
  title={The no miracles argument without the base rate fallacy},
  author={Richard Dawid and Stephan Hartmann},
  journal={Synthese},
  year={2017},
  volume={195},
  pages={4063-4079}
}
According to an argument by Colin Howson, the no-miracles argument (NMA) is contingent on committing the base-rate fallacy and is therefore bound to fail. We demonstrate that Howson’s argument only applies to one of two versions of the NMA. The other version, which resembles the form in which the argument was initially presented by Putnam and Boyd, remains unaffected by his line of reasoning. We provide a formal reconstruction of that version of the NMA and show that it is valid. Finally, we… CONTINUE READING
Related Discussions
This paper has been referenced on Twitter 2 times. VIEW TWEETS

From This Paper

Topics from this paper.

Citations

Publications citing this paper.
Showing 1-2 of 2 extracted citations

References

Publications referenced by this paper.
Showing 1-10 of 21 references

Scientific Prediction and the Underdetermination of Scientific Theory Building

R. Dawid
PhilSci-Archive • 2008
View 12 Excerpts
Highly Influenced

Does the miracle argument embody a base rate fallacy?

Studies in history and philosophy of science • 2014
View 3 Excerpts
Highly Influenced

Knowing the Structure of Nature

S. Psillos
New York: Palgrave McMillan • 2009
View 3 Excerpts
Highly Influenced

The probabilistic no miracles argument

European journal for philosophy of science • 2016

David Hume's no-miracles argument begets a valid No-Miracles Argument.

Studies in history and philosophy of science • 2015
View 1 Excerpt

Exhuming the No Miracles Argument

C. Howson
Analysis 73 • 2013
View 1 Excerpt

Exceeding Our Grasp: Science, History, and the Problem of Unconceived Alternatives

K. Stanford
2006
View 1 Excerpt

Similar Papers

Loading similar papers…