The no miracles argument without the base rate fallacy

  title={The no miracles argument without the base rate fallacy},
  author={Richard Dawid and Stephan Hartmann},
According to an argument by Colin Howson, the no-miracles argument (NMA) is contingent on committing the base-rate fallacy and is therefore bound to fail. We demonstrate that Howson’s argument only applies to one of two versions of the NMA. The other version, which resembles the form in which the argument was initially presented by Putnam and Boyd, remains unaffected by his line of reasoning. We provide a formal reconstruction of that version of the NMA and show that it is valid. Finally, we… CONTINUE READING
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