The meaning(s) of conditionals: conditional probabilities, mental models, and personal utilities.

@article{Oberauer2003TheMO,
  title={The meaning(s) of conditionals: conditional probabilities, mental models, and personal utilities.},
  author={K. Oberauer and O. Wilhelm},
  journal={Journal of experimental psychology. Learning, memory, and cognition},
  year={2003},
  volume={29 4},
  pages={
          680-93
        }
}
  • K. Oberauer, O. Wilhelm
  • Published 2003
  • Psychology, Medicine
  • Journal of experimental psychology. Learning, memory, and cognition
Five experiments were conducted to test the hypothesis that people understand conditional statements ("if p then q") as indicating a high conditional probability P(q/p). Participants estimated the probability that a given conditional is true (Experiments 1A, 1B, and 3) or judged whether a conditional was true or false (Experiments 2 and 4) given information about the frequencies of the relevant truth table cases. Judgments were strongly influenced by the ratio of pq to p not q cases, supporting… Expand
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