The long and short of it: The unpredictability of late deciding voters

@inproceedings{BoxSteffensmeier2015TheLA,
  title={The long and short of it: The unpredictability of late deciding voters},
  author={Janet M. Box-Steffensmeier and Micah Dillard and David C. Kimball and W. Kevin Massengill},
  year={2015}
}
We examine the longand short-campaign forces and their effects on the error variance in models of presidential voting decisions. Using a heteroskedastic probit allows a separate equation for the error variance and thus insight into campaign effects on voter uncertainty. Controlling for political sophistication, partisan strength and ambivalence, the choices of voters deciding later in the campaign are consistently less predictable. This is important because the number of late deciders has… CONTINUE READING
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