The intrinsic transmission dynamics of tuberculosis epidemics

  title={The intrinsic transmission dynamics of tuberculosis epidemics},
  author={Sally M. Blower and Angela R. McLean and Travis C. Porco and Peter M. Small and Philip C. Hopewell and Melissa A. Sanchez and Andrew R. Moss},
  journal={Nature Medicine},
In developed countries the major tuberculosis epidemics declined long before the disease became curable in the 1940s. We present a theoretical framework for assessing the intrinsic transmission dynamics of tuberculosis. We demonstrate that it takes one to several hundred years for a tuberculosis epidemic to rise, fall and reach a stable endemic level. Our results suggest that some of the decline of tuberculosis is simply due to the natural behaviour of an epidemic. Although other factors must… 

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