The importance of being mature: the effect of demographic maturation on global per capita GDP

  title={The importance of being mature: the effect of demographic maturation on global per capita GDP},
  author={Rafael G{\'o}mez and Pablo Hern{\'a}ndez de Cos},
  journal={Journal of Population Economics},
Given that savings behaviour and worker productivity have strong life-cycle components and given that demographic profiles vary across countries, population age structure should be linked to differences in levels of economic development. In this paper, we measure the economic importance of age structure variation for the global economy. We find that demographic maturation has been associated with nearly half of the evolution of global per capita GDP since 1960. We also find that age structure… 

Demographic Structure and Macroeconomic Trends

We estimate the effect of changes in demographic structure on long-term trends of key macroeconomic variables using a panel VAR for 21 OECD economies from 1970 –2014. The panel data variation assists


This study will focus on the inverse relationship between human fertility rates and the country’s Gross domestic product per capita. Many studies have tried connecting the levels of the country’s

Capital Flows and Demographics - An Asian Perspective

This paper calibrates the production functions of 176 countries to fit 2003 data and examines the capital flows that emerge, when labor forces change according to the 2007 UN population projections.

Demographic Origins of the Great Recession: Implications for China

The demographic dividend, that is, the growth of the working age population aged 16 years relative to younger and older age dependents, has often been cited as a crucial component of the accelerated

Ageing and Export Dependency

The primary manifestation of the demographic transition in a modern economic context is through ageing and the primary transmission from ageing to the macro economy is through its effect on saving

Impact of Age Population Structure on Transport Infrastructure Investments

Investment in transport infrastructure has been widely utilized as an instrument for inducing economic growth. Such investment usually leads to the creation of jobs and an increase in per capita

Is the demographic dividend diminishing in China? Evidence from population aging and economic growth during 1990–2015

Funding information the National Natural Science Foundation of China, Grant/Award Number: 71703044; Humanities and Social Sciences Youth Foundation of Ministry of Education of China, Grant/Award

An Estimate of the Potential Growth of the Spanish Economy

This paper seeks to estimate the potential output of the Spanish economy, using the production function methodology standard in the literature. According to these estimates, the growth of the

Credit Growth in Central and Eastern Europe: New (Over)Shooting Stars?

This paper analyzes the equilibrium level of private credit to GDP in 11 Central and Eastern European countries in order to see whether the high credit growth recently observed in some of these



Demographic Maturity and Economic Performance: The Effect of Demographic Transitions on Per Capita GDP Growth

This paper estimates the response of per capita GDP growth to changes in the proportion of mature workers across countries. We define and estimate the effect of demographic maturity in two ways.

Demographic and Per Capita Income Dynamics: A Convergence Study on Demographics, Human Capital, and Per Capita Income for the US States

This paper finds that age distribution, educational attainment, and government size converge across the US states at rates rather similar to the convergence rate for per capita income. The main part

Age structure effects and growth in the OECD, 1950–1990

Abstract. Economic growth depends on human resources and human needs. The demographic age structure shapes both of these factors. We study five-year data from the OECD countries 1950–1990 in the

Demographic Dynamics and the Empirics of Economic Growth

  • Michael Sarel
  • Economics
    Staff papers - International Monetary Fund. International Monetary Fund
  • 1995
A model of production with labor productivity that varies with age is developed that is representative of the changing age structure of the population and helps estimate the relative productivity of different age groups.

Age Structure Effects and Growth in the OECD, 1950-90: Further Evidence

Economic growth depends on human resources and human needs. The demographic age structure shapes both of these factors. We study five-year data from the OECD countries 1950-90 in the framework of a

Trade, Growth and the Size of Countries

Normally, economists take the size of countries as an exogenous variable which does need to be explained. Nevertheless, the borders of countries and therefore their size change, partially in response

Population and Ideas: A Theory of Endogenous Growth

Why do economies exhibit sustained growth in per capita income? This paper argues that endogenous fertility and increasing returns to scale are the fundamental ingredients in understanding endogenous

The Chinese Saving Puzzle and the Life-Cycle Hypothesis

China's per capita income ranks below 100th in the world. Its saving rate, however, has been one of the highest worldwide in recent decades. In this paper, we attempt to explain the seeming paradox

Inequality in the distribution of personal income in the world: How it is changing and why

Abstract. The variance in the logarithms of per capita GDP in purchasing-power-parity prices increased in the world from 1960 to 1968 and decreased since the mid 1970s. In the later period the

On the Evolution of the World Income Distribution

The post-World War II period has seen substantial changes in the distribution of GDP per worker around the world. In the upper half of the distribution, a number of countries have exhibited large