The half-life of truth: what are appropriate time horizons for research decisions?

@article{Philips2008TheHO,
  title={The half-life of truth: what are appropriate time horizons for research decisions?},
  author={Zoe Philips and Karl Claxton and Stephen Palmer},
  journal={Medical decision making : an international journal of the Society for Medical Decision Making},
  year={2008},
  volume={28 3},
  pages={287-99}
}
PURPOSE To evaluate alternative approaches taken to estimate the population that could benefit from research and to demonstrate that explicitly modeling future change leads to more appropriate estimates of the expected value of information (EVI). METHODS Existing approaches to estimating the population typically focus on the time horizon for decisions, employing seemingly arbitrary estimates of the appropriate horizon. These approaches implicitly use the time horizon as a proxy for future… CONTINUE READING

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