The global spread of malaria in a future, warmer world.

  title={The global spread of malaria in a future, warmer world.},
  author={David J. Rogers and Sarah E. Randolph},
  volume={289 5485},
The frequent warnings that global climate change will allow falciparum malaria to spread into northern latitudes, including Europe and large parts of the United States, are based on biological transmission models driven principally by temperature. These models were assessed for their value in predicting present, and therefore future, malaria distribution. In an alternative statistical approach, the recorded present-day global distribution of falciparum malaria was used to establish the current… 

Climate change and mosquito-borne disease.

  • P. Reiter
  • Medicine
    Environmental health perspectives
  • 2001
The histories of three such diseases--malaria, yellow fever, and dengue--reveal that climate has rarely been the principal determinant of their prevalence or range; human activities and their impact on local ecology have generally been much more significant.

Epidemic malaria and warmer temperatures in recent decades in an East African highland

It is suggested that climate change has already played an important role in the exacerbation of malaria in this region and other factors previously suggested to explain all of the increase in malaria may be enhancing the impact of climate change.

Climatic suitability for malaria transmission in Africa, 1911–1995

  • J. SmallS. GoetzS. Hay
  • Environmental Science
    Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America
  • 2003
The need to examine the relationship between climate and malaria more closely and to fully consider nonclimatic factors as drivers of increased malaria transmission across Africa is highlighted.

Shifting suitability for malaria vectors across Africa with warming climates

  • A. Peterson
  • Environmental Science
    BMC infectious diseases
  • 2009
Climate change effects on African malaria vectors shift their distributional potential from west to east and south, which has implications for overall numbers of people exposed to these vector species.

Climate Change and the Disappearance of Malaria from England

As the world's climate continues to change there is concern that this may cause malaria to spread to new areas. Here we examine whether past changes in temperature, in addition to social changes, may

Global warming and the spread of disease: the debate heats up.

  • Wilson
  • Environmental Science
    Trends in ecology & evolution
  • 2000

Climate Suitability for Stable Malaria Transmission in Zimbabwe Under Different Climate Change Scenarios

Changes in temperature and precipitation could alter the geographic distribution of malaria in Zimbabwe, with previously unsuitable areas of dense human population becoming suitable for transmission.

Assessing the future threat from vivax malaria in the United Kingdom using two markedly different modelling approaches

Although the future climate in the UK is favourable for the transmission of vivax malaria, the future risk of locally transmitted malaria is considered low because of low vector biting rates and the low probability of vectors feeding on a malaria-infected person.



Potential impact of global climate change on malaria risk.

Assessment of the potential impact of global climate change on the incidence of malaria suggests a widespread increase of risk due to expansion of the areas suitable for malaria transmission, most pronounced at the borders of endemic malaria areas and at higher altitudes within malarial areas.


These findings vis-à-vis the present endemic areas indicate that the increase in the epidemic potential of malaria and dengue transmission may be estimated at 12–27% and 31–47%, respectively, while in contrast, schistosomiasis transmission potential may be expected to exhibit a 11–17% decrease.

Malaria in the African highlands: past, present and future.

The results obtained using a mathematical model designed to identify these epidemic-prone regions in the African highlands and the differences expected to occur as a result of projected global climate change are presented.

From Shakespeare to Defoe: malaria in England in the Little Ice Age.

  • P. Reiter
  • Environmental Science
    Emerging infectious diseases
  • 2000
The history of the disease in England underscores the role of factors other than temperature in malaria transmission, and predictions that malaria will emerge from the tropics and become established in Europe and North America are refuted.

Dengue fever epidemic potential as projected by general circulation models of global climate change.

If climate change occurs, as many climatologists believe, this will increase the epidemic potential of dengue-carrying mosquitoes, given viral introduction and susceptible human populations, and the risk assessment suggests that increased incidence may first occur in regions bordering endemic zones in latitude or altitude.

Potential effect of global warming on mosquito-borne arboviruses.

Studies were done on effect of temperature changes on survival of Culex tarsalis Coquillett, the primary vector of western equine encephalomyelitis (WEE) and St. Louis encephalitis (SLE) viruses, in two regions where temperatures differed by 5 degrees C.

Impacts of global environmental change on future health and health care in tropical countries.

The aggregate human impact on the environment now exceeds the limits of absorption or regeneration of various major biophysical systems, at global and regional levels, and disturbances of the Earth's life-support systems will affect disproportionately the resource-poor and geographically vulnerable populations in many tropical countries.