The future of the HIV pandemic.

  title={The future of the HIV pandemic.},
  author={Nicholas C. Grassly and Geoffrey P. Garnett},
  journal={Bulletin of the World Health Organization},
  volume={83 5},
The emerging HIV epidemics in countries of Asia and Eastern Europe will contribute significantly to the future of the HIV pandemic. Forecasts of the scale of these epidemics are subject to massive uncertainty, however, mainly because of the sensitivity of predictions to small alterations in parameters that are difficult to estimate. In most of these countries, HIV is currently concentrated among vulnerable populations such as injecting drug users, sex workers and their clients, or men who have… 

Figures and Tables from this paper

Lessons from previous predictions of HIV/AIDS in the United States and Japan: epidemiologic models and policy formulation
  • H. Nishiura
  • Medicine
    Epidemiologic perspectives & innovations : EP+I
  • 2007
The present paper highlights the need for appropriate assessment of specific modeling purposes and explicit listing of essential information as well as possible solutions to aid relevant policy formulation.
HIV and Pregnancy: Twenty-five Years into the Epidemic
  • S. C. Hughes
  • Medicine, Political Science
    International anesthesiology clinics
  • 2007
HIV disease today, particularly in parts of sub-Saharan Africa, is not unlike the Bubonic Plague or the ‘‘Black Death’’ that swept through Europe in 1348 to 1349 and may well have a similar effect in part of Africa where 25% to 40% or more of the women delivering in some urban centers are HIV-positive.
Treatment as prevention among injecting drug users; extrapolating from the Amsterdam cohort study
Treatment led to much greater reduction in incidence compared with stopping HIV-infected IDU from lending out syringes, and to fully eliminate the spread of HIV, treatment as prevention should be combined with other interventions, with behavioral intervention directed at those not yet HIV infected.
A qualitative analysis of HIV/AIDS policy in Russian Federation : creating an advocacy model
The Russian Federation has one of the highest growth rates of HIV infection in the world. The main shortcomings of the Russian Government efforts in preventing the spread of epidemic are: (i)
Molecular and epidemiological characteristics of blood‐borne virus infections among recent immigrants in Spain
While Sub‐Saharan Africans carry wide diverse genetic variants of blood‐borne viruses, the absence of high‐risk practices in most cases could limit the spread of these variants, Latin Americans with high-risk sexual practices may be a particularly vulnerable collective to acquire blood-borne viruses in the receptor country.
High rates of forward transmission events after acute/early HIV-1 infection.
Early infection accounts for approximately half of onward transmissions in this urban North American study, suggesting therapy at early stages of disease may prevent onward HIV transmission.
Cost-Effectiveness of Antiretroviral Therapy for Prevention
A conceptual model for conducting and interpreting cost-effectiveness analyses of ART as prevention, and review the existing preliminary estimates in this area are presented.
Changes in attitudes, risky practices, and HIV and syphilis prevalence among female sex workers in Brazil from 2009 to 2016
Despite the progress made toward controlling the human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)/AIDS epidemic among female sex workers (FSW) from 2009 to 2016, it is necessary to increase awareness campaigns, emphasize the use, reaffirm STI counseling, and reiterate the need of regular syphilis screening in this key population group.
Reaching an AIDS-Free Generation in Côte d'Ivoire, Data Driven Policy Design for HIV/AIDS Response Programs: Evidence-Based Policy Design for HIV/AIDS Response Programs in Côte d'Ivoire
This research develops a formal system dynamics model capturing the evolution of HIV/AIDS in Cote d'Ivoire for four decades, starting in 1990, including a development of HIV /AIDS behavior pattern over time that led to the proposal of evidence-based policies.


A preliminary study of the transmission dynamics of the human immunodeficiency virus (HIV), the causative agent of AIDS.
Preliminary attempts to formulate simple mathematical models of the transmission dynamics of HIV infection in homosexual communities are described, and the influence of variation in the incubation period and heterogeneity in sexual activity is assessed.
Strategies for limiting the spread of HIV in developing countries: conclusions based on studies of the transmission dynamics of the virus.
  • G. Garnett, R. Anderson
  • Biology
    Journal of acquired immune deficiency syndromes and human retrovirology : official publication of the International Retrovirology Association
  • 1995
Targeted interventions are predicted to be very cost effective but their overall success in reducing HIV spread by a significant degree depends on the timing of their introduction (within the time frame of the development of the epidemic) and the pattern of mixing between different risk groups or sexual activity classes.
The workbook approach to making estimates and projecting future scenarios of HIV/AIDS in countries with low level and concentrated epidemics
An approach to making estimates and short term projections of future scenarios of HIV/AIDS in countries with low level and concentrated epidemics focuses on identifying populations which through their behaviour are at higher risk of infection with HIV or who are exposed through the risk behaviour of their sexual partners.
Improved methods and assumptions for estimation of the HIV/AIDS epidemic and its impact: Recommendations of the UNAIDS Reference Group on Estimates, Modelling and Projections.
Recommendations reflecting the consensus of the meeting participants on the four priority areas were determined and followed in UNAIDS and WHO development of country-specific estimates of HIV/AIDS and its impact for end of 2001.
The spread of HIV-1 in Africa: sexual contact patterns and the predicted demographic impact of AIDS
Current data reveal substantial variations in the degree of spread between and in countries, but new analyses support earlier predictions that in the worst-afflicted areas AIDS is likely to change population growth rates from positive to negative values in a few decades.
Drugs, sex and HIV: a mathematical model for New York City.
The results showed that the effect of the heterosexual transmission risk factor on increasing the risk of HIV infection depends upon the level of IVDU, and suggested that long-term precise estimates of the future number of AIDS cases will only be possible once the values of these key variables have been evaluated accurately.
The effectiveness of HIV prevention and the epidemiological context.
Appropriate indicators for the epidemiological context and methodological guidelines for their measurement are proposed and their use in the transfer of a successful intervention from one context to another and in scaling up the effort to control HIV infection is explored.
Effectiveness of HIV prevention interventions in developing countries.
It is found that behavioral change interventions are effective when targeted to populations at high risk, particularly female sex workers and their clients, and that HIV prevention interventions can be effective in changing risk behaviors and preventing transmission in low and middle-income countries.