The future incidence of leprosy: a scenario analysis.

  title={The future incidence of leprosy: a scenario analysis.},
  author={Abraham Meima and William Cairns S. Smith and G J van Oortmarssen and Jan Hendrik Richardus and J. Dik F. Habbema},
  journal={Bulletin of the World Health Organization},
  volume={82 5},
OBJECTIVE To investigate the impact of the current strategy for the elimination of leprosy on its incidence and to assess the consequences of failure to sustain this strategy. METHODS Scenarios for assessing the impact of the elimination strategy were implemented in a computer simulation program. The scenarios reflected the assumptions made regarding contagiousness, transmission and bacille Calmette-Guerin (BCG) vaccination. The trend in case detection rate for the main countries in which… CONTINUE READING