The first 100 days: Modeling the evolution of the COVID-19 pandemic

@article{Kaxiras2020TheF1,
  title={The first 100 days: Modeling the evolution of the COVID-19 pandemic},
  author={E. Kaxiras and Georgios Neofotistos and E. Angelaki},
  journal={Chaos, Solitons, and Fractals},
  year={2020},
  volume={138},
  pages={110114 - 110114}
}
Abstract A simple analytical model for modeling the evolution of the 2020 COVID-19 pandemic is presented. The model is based on the numerical solution of the widely used Susceptible-Infectious-Removed (SIR) populations model for describing epidemics. We consider an expanded version of the original Kermack-McKendrick model, which includes a decaying value of the parameter β (the effective contact rate) due to externally imposed conditions, to which we refer as the forced-SIR (FSIR) model… Expand

Figures and Tables from this paper

The Reference Model: An Initial Use Case for COVID-19
TLDR
The Reference Model is now used to answer a few questions on COVID-19, while changing the traditional susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) model approach, to answer questions such as the probability of transmission per encounter, disease duration, and mortality rate. Expand
Modeling and forecasting of COVID-19 infection cases in Iraq
TLDR
The results show that the appropriate model to forecast the future number of infections and death in COVID-19 pandemic is nonparametric polynomial model, and the forecasted numbers are near the actual numbers. Expand
Multiple Epidemic Wave Model of the COVID-19 Pandemic: Modeling Study
TLDR
The hypothesis that the COVID-19 pandemic can be successfully modeled as a series of epidemic waves (subepidemics) and that it is possible to infer to what extent the imposition of early intervention measures can slow the spread of the disease is supported. Expand
Modeling and prediction of COVID-19 in the United States considering population behavior and vaccination
TLDR
The models indicate that at the current rate of vaccination, the new infection cases for COVID-19 in the United States will approach zero by the end of August 2021, and a return towards pre-pandemic social behavior due to increased sense of safety during vaccine deployment, can cause an alarming surge in infections. Expand
Modeling the Covid-19 Pandemic Response of the US States
TLDR
The results reveal a series of epidemic waves, characterizing USA's pandemic response at the state level, and infer to what extent the imposition of early intervention measures could have had on the spread and impact of the disease. Expand
Complex dynamics in susceptible-infected models for COVID-19 with multi-drug resistance
  • A. Matouk
  • Computer Science
  • Chaos, Solitons & Fractals
  • 2020
Nowadays, exploring complex dynamic of epidemic models becomes a focal point for research after the outbreak of COVID-19 pandemic which has no vaccine or fully approved drug treatment up till now.Expand
COVID-19: Predictive Mathematical Models for the Number of Deaths in South Korea, Italy, Spain, France, UK, Germany, and USA
TLDR
Using data up to around the time that the rate of deaths reaches a maximum, these models provide estimates for theTime that a plateau will be reached signifying that the epidemic is approaching its end, as well as for the cumulative number of deaths at that time. Expand
Role of data science in managing COVID-19 pandemic
ABSTRACT In December of 2019, the first outbreak of COVID-19 was detected in mainland China, eventually spreading to every continent in the world except Antarctica. Named Coronavirus Disease 19Expand
Data analysis of Covid-19 pandemic and short-term cumulative case forecasting using machine learning time series methods
TLDR
In this study, data of COVID-19 between 20/01/2020 and 18/09/2020 for USA, Germany and Global was obtained from World Health Organization and time series prediction model using machine learning was proposed to obtain the curve of disease and forecast the epidemic tendency. Expand
Two alternative scenarios for easing COVID-19 lockdown measures: one reasonable and one catastrophic
TLDR
By choosing appropriately the parameters of the mathematical equations describing the dynamics of the above sub-populations in data stemming from Greece, one can obtain a reasonable match of the existing data for the time evolution of the total number of deaths and infections for both subpopulations during the current state of lockdown. Expand
...
1
2
3
...

References

SHOWING 1-10 OF 34 REFERENCES
Predictive mathematical models for the number of individuals infected with COVID-19
TLDR
The analysis of the applicability of the above models to the cases of China and South Korea suggest that they yield more accurate predictions, and importantly that they may provide an upper bound of the actual N(t), as well as introducing two novel models that will be referred to as 'rational' and 'birational'. Expand
Estimating the infection horizon of COVID-19 in eight countries with a data-driven approach
TLDR
This work uses the quantitative landscape of the disease spreading in China as a benchmark and utilizes infection data from eight countries to estimate the complete evolution of the infection in each of these countries, based on a Gaussian spreading hypothesis. Expand
Modelling the COVID-19 epidemic and implementation of population-wide interventions in Italy
TLDR
It is demonstrated that restrictive social-distancing measures will need to be combined with widespread testing and contact tracing to end the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic. Expand
An epidemiological modelling approach for COVID-19 via data assimilation
TLDR
An epidemiological model for forecasting and policy evaluation which incorporates new data in real-time through variational data assimilation is proposed and developed, named SITR model, which allows for more granular inference on infection numbers. Expand
Estimating the effects of non-pharmaceutical interventions on COVID-19 in Europe
TLDR
The results show that major non-pharmaceutical interventions and lockdown in particular have had a large effect on reducing transmission and continued intervention should be considered to keep transmission of SARS-CoV-2 under control. Expand
Early Transmission Dynamics in Wuhan, China, of Novel Coronavirus–Infected Pneumonia
TLDR
There is evidence that human-to-human transmission has occurred among close contacts since the middle of December 2019 and considerable efforts to reduce transmission will be required to control outbreaks if similar dynamics apply elsewhere. Expand
Inferring change points in the spread of COVID-19 reveals the effectiveness of interventions
TLDR
Modeling and Bayesian inference reveal the time dependence of SARS-CoV-2 interventions on the number of new infections using the example of Germany and the impact of these measures on the disease spread using change point analysis. Expand
High Contagiousness and Rapid Spread of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2
TLDR
It is shown that active surveillance, contact tracing, quarantine, and early strong social distancing efforts are needed to stop transmission of the virus. Expand
Measurability of the epidemic reproduction number in data-driven contact networks
TLDR
It is found that the classical concept of the basic reproduction number is untenable in realistic populations, and it does not provide any conceptual understanding of the epidemic evolution, and evidence is provided that methodologies aimed at estimating the instantaneous reproduction number can operationally be used to characterize the correct epidemic dynamics from incidence data. Expand
A novel sub-epidemic modeling framework for short-term forecasting epidemic waves
TLDR
This work develops and applies a novel sub-epidemic modeling framework that supports a diversity of epidemic trajectories including stable incidence patterns with sustained or damped oscillations to better understand and forecast epidemic outbreaks. Expand
...
1
2
3
4
...