The evolution of overconfidence

@article{Johnson2011TheEO,
  title={The evolution of overconfidence},
  author={Dominic D. P. Johnson and James H. Fowler},
  journal={Nature},
  year={2011},
  volume={477},
  pages={317-320}
}
Confidence is an essential ingredient of success in a wide range of domains ranging from job performance and mental health to sports, business and combat. Some authors have suggested that not just confidence but overconfidence—believing you are better than you are in reality—is advantageous because it serves to increase ambition, morale, resolve, persistence or the credibility of bluffing, generating a self-fulfilling prophecy in which exaggerated confidence actually increases the probability… Expand

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