The effects of averaging subjective probability estimates between and within judges.

@article{Ariely2000TheEO,
  title={The effects of averaging subjective probability estimates between and within judges.},
  author={Dan Ariely and Wing Au and Randall H. Bender and David V. Budescu and Claudia Dietz and Hang Gu and Thomas S. Wallsten and Gal Zauberman},
  journal={Journal of experimental psychology. Applied},
  year={2000},
  volume={6 2},
  pages={130-47}
}
The average probability estimate of J > 1 judges is generally better than its components. Two studies test 3 predictions regarding averaging that follow from theorems based on a cognitive model of the judges and idealizations of the judgment situation. Prediction 1 is that the average of conditionally pairwise independent estimates will be highly diagnostic, and Prediction 2 is that the average of dependent estimates (differing only by independent error terms) may be well calibrated. Prediction… CONTINUE READING

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