The effective reproduction number of pandemic influenza: prospective estimation.


BACKGROUND Timely estimation of the transmissibility of a novel pandemic influenza virus was a public health priority in 2009. METHODS We extended methods for prospective estimation of the effective reproduction number (Rt) over time in an emerging epidemic to allow for reporting delays and repeated importations. We estimated Rt based on case notifications and hospitalizations associated with laboratory-confirmed pandemic (H1N1) 2009 virus infections in Hong Kong from June through October 2009. RESULTS Rt declined from around 1.4-1.5 at the start of the local epidemic to around 1.1-1.2 later in the summer, suggesting changes in transmissibility perhaps related to school vacations or seasonality. Estimates of Rt based on hospitalizations of confirmed H1N1 cases closely matched estimates based on case notifications. CONCLUSION Real-time monitoring of the effective reproduction number is feasible and can provide useful information to public health authorities for situational awareness and calibration of mitigation strategies.

DOI: 10.1097/EDE.0b013e3181f20977
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@article{Cowling2010TheER, title={The effective reproduction number of pandemic influenza: prospective estimation.}, author={Benjamin John Cowling and Max S. Y. Lau and Lai Ming Ho and Shuk-kwan Chuang and Thomas Tsang and Shao-Haei Liu and Pak-Yin Leung and Su Vui Lo and Eric H. Y. Lau}, journal={Epidemiology}, year={2010}, volume={21 6}, pages={842-6} }