The effect of incubation time distribution on the extinction characteristics of a rabies epizootic.

The continuous model of Anderson et al. (1981), Nature 289, 765-771, is successful in describing certain characteristics of rabies epizootics, in particular, the secondary recurrences which follow the initial outbreak; however, it also predicts the occurrence of exponentially small minima in the infected population, which would realistically imply… CONTINUE READING