The dud-alternative effect in likelihood judgment.

@article{Windschitl2004TheDE,
  title={The dud-alternative effect in likelihood judgment.},
  author={Paul D. Windschitl and John R. Chambers},
  journal={Journal of experimental psychology. Learning, memory, and cognition},
  year={2004},
  volume={30 1},
  pages={
          198-215
        }
}
The judged likelihood of a focal outcome should generally decrease as the list of alternative possibilities increases. For example, the likelihood that a runner will win a race goes down when 2 new entries are added to the field. However, 6 experiments demonstrate that the presence of implausible alternatives (duds) often increases the judged likelihood of a focal outcome. This dud-alternative effect was detected for judgments involving uncertainty about trivia facts and stochastic events… CONTINUE READING
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Likelihood judgment in multi-alternative cases. Manuscript in preparation, University of Iowa

  • P. D. Windschitl, Z. Krizan, A. R. Flugstad
  • 2003
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