The dilution effect: judgmental bias, conversational convention, or a bit of both?

@article{Tetlock1996TheDE,
  title={The dilution effect: judgmental bias, conversational convention, or a bit of both?},
  author={Philip E. Tetlock and Jennifer Susan Lerner and Richard Boettger},
  journal={European Journal of Social Psychology},
  year={1996},
  volume={26},
  pages={915-934}
}
This study explored competing normative interpretations of the dilution effect: the tendency for people to underutilize diagnostic evidence in prediction tasks when that evidence is accompanied by irrelevant information. From the normative vantage point of the intuitive statistician, the dilution effect is a judgmental bias that arises from the representativeness heuristic (similarity-matching of causes and effects). From the normative prospective of the intuitive politician, however, the… 
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