The covariance decomposition of the probability score and its use in evaluating prognostic estimates. SUPPORT Investigators.

@article{Arkes1995TheCD,
  title={The covariance decomposition of the probability score and its use in evaluating prognostic estimates. SUPPORT Investigators.},
  author={Hal R. Arkes and Neal Dawson and Theodore Speroff and Frank E. Harrell and Carlos F Alzola and Robyn Phillips and Norman A. Desbiens and Robert K. Oye and William Knaus and Alfred F. Connors},
  journal={Medical decision making : an international journal of the Society for Medical Decision Making},
  year={1995},
  volume={15 2},
  pages={120-31}
}
The probability score (PS) or Brier score has been used in a large number of studies in which physician judgment performance was assessed. However, the covariance decomposition of the PS has not previously been used to evaluate medical judgment. The authors introduce the technique and demonstrate it by analyzing prognostic estimates of three groups: physicians, their patients, and the patients' decision-making surrogates. The major components of the covariance decomposition--bias, slope, and… CONTINUE READING