The base rate fallacy reconsidered : Descriptive , normative , and met ~ odological challenges

  title={The base rate fallacy reconsidered : Descriptive , normative , and met ~ odological challenges},
  author={Jonathan J. Koehler},
We have been oversold on the hase rate fallacy in probabilistic judgment from an empirical, normative, and methodological standpoint. At the empirical Ievel, a thorough examination of the base rate Iiterature (including the famous lawyer-engineer prob lern) does not support the conventional wisdom that people routinely ignore base rates. Quite the contrary, the Iiterature shows that base rates are almost always used and that their degree of use depends on task structure and representation… CONTINUE READING
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P(H n E) P(H 1 E)P(E) P(H n E) = P(E 1 HlP(H)

  • Bayes' theorem follows directly from the multiplicative m probability, H whichholdsthatthejointprobabilityoftwoevents, E equals the product of the conditional probability events, given the second event, the probability of the second event. In mathematical notation
  • . P(H I E) = P(E I H)P(H) .• P(E) whereP(E) P(E…
  • 1996
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1980) results and suggested that the base rates may have been influential only for cases in whieh the pictures were perceived to be nondiagnostic

  • Bar-Hillel, Fischhoff
  • In reply, Manis et al
  • 1981

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