The base rate fallacy reconsidered: Descriptive, normative, and methodological challenges

@article{Koehler1996TheBR,
  title={The base rate fallacy reconsidered: Descriptive, normative, and methodological challenges},
  author={J. Koehler},
  journal={Behavioral and Brain Sciences},
  year={1996},
  volume={19},
  pages={1-17}
}
  • J. Koehler
  • Published 1996
  • Psychology
  • Behavioral and Brain Sciences
We have been oversold on the base rate fallacy in probabilistic judgment from an empirical, normative, and methodological standpoint. At the empirical level, a thorough examination of the base rate literature (including the famous lawyer-engineer problem) does not support the conventional wisdom that people routinely ignore base rates. Quite the contrary, the literature shows that base rates are almost always used and that their degree of use depends on task structure and representation… Expand
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