The Surprising Global Variation in Replacement Fertility

  title={The Surprising Global Variation in Replacement Fertility},
  author={Thomas J. Espenshade and Juan Carlos Guzman and Charles F. Westoff},
  journal={Population Research and Policy Review},
It is frequently assumed by the general public and alsoby some population experts that the value ofreplacement-level fertility is everywhere an averageof 2.1 lifetime births per woman. Nothing could befurther from the truth. The global variation inreplacement fertility is substantial, ranging by almost1.4 live births from less than 2.1 to nearly 3.5. Thisrange is due almost entirely to cross-country differencesin mortality, concentrated in the less developed world.Policy makers need to be… 
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