The Sunk-Cost Fallacy in the National Football League

@article{Keefer2017TheSF,
  title={The Sunk-Cost Fallacy in the National Football League},
  author={Quinn A. W. Keefer},
  journal={Journal of Sports Economics},
  year={2017},
  volume={18},
  pages={282 - 297}
}
The National Football League (NFL) draft is used to examine the presence of the sunk-cost fallacy in teams’ playing time decisions. In the NFL, salary cap value represents a significant sunk cost to teams. We use the structure of the NFL draft to conduct a fuzzy regression discontinuity design. Optimal bandwidth local linear results suggest a 10% increase in salary cap value yields an additional 2.7 games started, for players selected near the cutoff between the first two rounds. Despite being… 

Figures and Tables from this paper

Do sunk costs affect expert decision making? Evidence from the within-game usage of NFL running backs

The presence of the sunk-cost fallacy in expert decision making is tested by examining the within-game usage of players in the National Football League (NFL). Using the exogenous variation in

Do sunk costs affect expert decision making? Evidence from the within-game usage of NFL running backs

The presence of the sunk-cost fallacy in expert decision making is tested by examining the within-game usage of players in the National Football League (NFL). Using the exogenous variation in

Performance Feedback Does Not Eliminate the Sunk-Cost Fallacy: Evidence From Professional Football

Empirical studies on the influence of sunk costs in high stakes decisions have come to mixed conclusions. As observational studies have primarily used professional sports labor markets, we analyze

Race and Quarterback Survival in the National Football League

This study examines data from the 2001 to 2009 National Football League (NFL) seasons to determine whether Black quarterbacks face discrimination. When controlling for injury, age, experience,

Employer-Assigned Workload and Human Capital Deterioration: Evidence From the National Football League

We test whether human capital deterioration is a function of employer decision making with respect to workload allocation. We examine this question in the context of National Football League running

Sunk costs in the NBA: the salary cap and free agents

The previous research on the role sunk costs play in the National Basketball Association (NBA) has come to mixed conclusions. We use a direct measure of sunk costs, player compensation, and a

Sunk costs in the NBA: the salary cap and free agents

The previous research on the role sunk costs play in the National Basketball Association (NBA) has come to mixed conclusions. We use a direct measure of sunk costs, player compensation, and a

Did the 2011 Change to NFL Rookie Compensation Alter How Sunk Costs Affect Utilization?

The 2011 NFL collective bargaining agreement introduced significant changes to rookie compensation, including a rookie wage scale. We test if the new rules changed how sunk costs affect utilization

References

SHOWING 1-10 OF 31 REFERENCES

Catching a draft: on the process of selecting quarterbacks in the National Football League amateur draft

The reverse order college draft gives the worst teams in the National Football League (NFL) the opportunity to hire the best amateur talent. For it to work effectively, teams must be able to identify

The Loser's Curse: Decision Making and Market Efficiency in the National Football League Draft

The decision making of National Football League teams during their annual player draft is analyzed and top draft picks are significantly overvalued in a manner that is inconsistent with rational expectations and efficient markets, and consistent with psychological research.

Sunk Costs in the NBA: Why Draft Order Affects Playing Time and Survival in Professional Basketball

This research was supported by a faculty research grant from the Institute of Industrial Relations at the University of California, Berkeley. The authors would like to thank Max Bazerman, Glenn

Rank-Based Groupings and Decision Making

Rank-based groupings are uninformative signals of quality when the exact rank is known; therefore, they should be ignored in decision making. However, evidence is presented that rank-based groupings

The Psychology of Sunk Cost

Consumer search behavior and sunk costs

Looking forward and looking back: integrating completion and sunk-cost effects within an escalation-of-commitment progress decision.

  • H. Moon
  • Psychology
    The Journal of applied psychology
  • 2001
It is proposed that sunk costs and need to complete exert simultaneous pressures, both independent and interactive, on a decision maker's level of commitment.

Estimating the Effect of Financial Aid Offers on College Enrollment: A Regression-Discontinuity Approach

An important problem faced by colleges and universities, that of evaluating the effect of their financial aid offers on student enrollment decisions, is complicated by the likely endogeneity of the