The Shrinking Gains from Trade: A Critical Assessment of Doha Round Projections

@inproceedings{Ackerman2005TheSG,
  title={The Shrinking Gains from Trade: A Critical Assessment of Doha Round Projections},
  author={Frank. Ackerman},
  year={2005}
}
Computable general equilibri um (CGE) models of world trade, often presented as demonstrating the benefits of trade liberaliza tion, now make much more modest forecasts than they did just a few years ago. The es timated benefits are not only small in the aggregate, but also skewed toward devel oped countries; the expected contribution of trade liberalization to economic development and poverty alleviation is extremely limited. Related calculations, for the expected benefits of services… 
View via Publisher
ase.tufts.edu
90 Citations
Highly Influential Citations
11
Background Citations
44
Methods Citations
4
Results Citations
6

90 Citations

The Expected Benefits of Trade Liberalization for World Income and Development: Opening the "Black Box" of Global Trade Modeling
"Trade liberalization is expected to act positively on world economic development and poverty alleviation, both of which have become high priorities of the international community. This emphasis…
Liberalizing Trade under Structural Constraints in Developing Countries. A General Equilibrium Analysis of Tanzania
The paper uses a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model of Tanzania, that includes considerable factor disaggregation and household detail, to explore the impact of trade liberalization on growth…
This draft: April 27, 2007 Liberalizing Trade under Structural Constraints in Developing Countries. A General Equilibrium Analysis of Tanzania By
The paper uses a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model of Tanzania, that includes considerable factor disaggregation and household detail, to explore the impact of trade liberalization on growth…
Projected Benefits of the Doha Round Hinge on Misleading Trade Models
Projected welfare gains from trade liberalization are derived from global computable general equilibrium (CGE) models, which are based on highly unrealistic assumptions. In this SCEPA Policy Note,…
Caveat Emptor: The Computable General Equilibrium Approach to Assessing the Poverty Impact of Trade Liberalisation
Millennium Development Goals, increasing attention is being given to the poverty impacts of trade liberalisation. The high level of public interest has stimulated renewed research activity aimed at…
SOUTH–SOUTH TRADE LIBERALISATION AS A WAY OF REDUCING THE IMPACT OF THE FINANCIAL CRISIS? AN EXPLORATORY CGE SIMULATION
Abstract Since 1990, South–South (S–S) trade has been growing much faster than overall world trade. The global financial crisis has, if anything, accentuated this trend, with S–S trade flows proving…
'Make or Break': Possibilities for East Asia and the Doha Round
Under the auspices of the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT), international trade has increased significantly — and tariffs have declined equally dramatically — over the past 70 years (see…
Agricultural Trade Liberalization, Productivity Gain, and Poverty Alleviation: A General Equilibrium Analysis
Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) models have gained popularity as an empirical tool for assessing the impact of trade liberalization on agricultural growth, poverty and income distribution.…
The potential impact of the Doha Development Agenda on the South African economy: liberalising OECD agriculture and food trade
Abstract This article reports the results of a static computable general equilibrium (CGE) model on the possible liberalisation of agriculture and food trade in the OECD countries. Liberalisation of…
Unemployment and Trade Liberalisation
In contrast to the focus of the public debate over trade liberalisation on job losses there is a widespread view among economists that unemployment and trade issues should be considered separately.…
...
...

References

SHOWING 1-10 OF 43 REFERENCES
Market and Welfare Implications of Doha Reform Scenarios
The paper reports the potential gains from possible Doha scenarios--comparing these with a dynamic baseline (through 2015) and the gains from full reform. It uses the World Bank's Linkage global…
The need for a "complete" labour market in CGE modeling
Unemployment in the whole world is at an all-time high. But nowhere is the employment challenge greater than in the developing world, particularly in Africa. Former studies already suggested that in…
Unemployment and Trade Liberalisation
In contrast to the focus of the public debate over trade liberalisation on job losses there is a widespread view among economists that unemployment and trade issues should be considered separately.…
Global Impacts of Doha Trade Reform Scenarios on Poverty
The authors illustrate some of the potential consequences of the World Trade Organization's Doha Round of multilateral trade negotiations on incomes and poverty globally. Using the global LINKAGE…
Computational Analysis of Multilateral Trade Liberalization in the Uruguay Round and Doha Development Round
We have used the Michigan Model of World Production and Trade to simulate the economic effects of the Uruguay Round of multilateral trade negotiations completed in 1993-94 on the major industrialized…
Multilateral Agricultural Trade Liberalisation: The Contrasting Fortunes of Developing Countries in the Doha Round
An applied general equilibrium model is used to assess the impact of multilateral trade liberalisation in agriculture, with particular emphasis on developing countries. We use original data, and the…
Agricultural Trade Reform and the Doha Development Agenda
Anderson and Martin examine the extent to which various regions, and the world as a whole, could gain from multilateral trade reform over the next decade. They use the World Bank's linkage model of…
Trade Policy and Global Poverty
The stakes of the poor in trade policy are large: Free trade can help 500 million people escape poverty and inject $200 billion annually into the economies of developing countries, according to…
Trade Liberalization and Developing Countries Under the Doha Round
We explore the impact of multilateral liberalization, with emphasis on distributional effects across countries. We first develop a realistic ‘baseline’ that takes into account events such as the…
Is Free Trade Passe
Abstract If there were an Economist's Creed, it would surely contain the affirmations “I understand the Principle of Comparative Advantage” and “I advocate Free Trade.” Yet the case for free trade is…
...
...