The Serotype Distribution among Healthy Carriers before Vaccination Is Essential for Predicting the Impact of Pneumococcal Conjugate Vaccine on Invasive Disease

  title={The Serotype Distribution among Healthy Carriers before Vaccination Is Essential for Predicting the Impact of Pneumococcal Conjugate Vaccine on Invasive Disease},
  author={Stefan Flasche and Olivier Le Polain de Waroux and Katherine L. O'Brien and W. John Edmunds},
  journal={PLoS Computational Biology},
Pneumococcal conjugate vaccines (PCVs) have substantially reduced morbidity and mortality of pneumococcal disease. The impact of the 7-valent PCV on all-serotype invasive pneumococcal disease (IPD) among children was reported to vary between high-income countries. We investigate the ability to predict this heterogeneity from pre-vaccination data. We propose a parsimonious model that predicts the impact of PCVs from the odds of vaccine serotype (VT) among carriers and IPD cases in the pre-PCV… 

Figures and Tables from this paper

Differences in the Impact of Pneumococcal Serotype Replacement in Individuals With and Without Underlying Medical Conditions.

  • D. WeinbergerJ. Warren Z. Harboe
  • Medicine, Biology
    Clinical infectious diseases : an official publication of the Infectious Diseases Society of America
  • 2019
Findings in the incidence of IPD associated with the introduction of PCV7 and PCV13 in children could help to predict the impact of next-generation PCVs in specific risk groups.

Differences in Pneumococcal Serotype Replacement in Individuals with and without Underlying Medical Conditions

Serotype replacement offset a greater proportion of the benefit of PCVs in strata in which the non-vaccine serotypes comprised a larger proportion of cases prior to the introduction of the vaccines.

The impact of introduction of the 10-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV10) on pneumococcal carriage in Nigeria

Significant reduction in vaccine-serotype carriage at a population level following a steady increase in PCV10 coverage is found, indicating direct and indirect vaccine effects.

Evaluating post-vaccine expansion patterns of pneumococcal serotypes

It is found that the assumption that non-vaccine serotypes increase by the same proportion overestimates changes in serotype prevalence in Jewish and Bedouin children, suggesting that changes in carriage in children alone may be insufficient to explain serotype replacement in disease.

Pneumococcal serotype evolution in

There is no single '19A-like' serotype emerging across countries and most of the newly emerging non-PCV13 vaccine types are less invasive with a low case-carrier ratio, compared with the time before the introduction of higher valent PCVs.

Predicting the impact of pneumococcal conjugate vaccine programme options in Vietnam

CCs are predicted to offer a substantial additional reduction in pneumococcal disease burden over RV alone, if their implementation does not result in much introduction delay, which is important to help guide vaccine introduction in countries that have not yet introduced PCV, particularly in Asia.

The impact of 10-valent pneumococcal vaccine introduction on invasive disease in Fiji

High residual vaccine-serotype Streptococcus pneumoniae carriage 4 to 6 years after the introduction of 13-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine in Malawi: a prospective serial cross-sectional study

The PCV13 3+0 schedule in Malawi has not achieved optimal reduction in pneumococcal carriage prevalence, compared to high-income settings, likely due to recolonisation of vaccinated children with waning vaccine-induced immunity and suboptimal indirect protection of unvaccinated populations.



A mathematical model of serotype replacement in pneumococcal carriage following vaccination

A mathematical model for the dynamics of nasopharyngeal carriage of S. pneumoniae that allows for carriage with multiple serotypes is presented, and predicts that low and medium prevalence serotypes can be eliminated through vaccination, but that the overall prevalence of carriage will be reduced only slightly because of an increase in the prevalence of NVT serotypes.

Impact of a Pneumococcal Conjugate Vaccination Program on Carriage among Children in Norway

Post-PCV7 shifts in pneumococcal reservoirs were assessed by two point prevalence studies of nasopharyngeal colonization among children in day care centers, before (2006) and after (2008) widespread use of PCV7.

Prediction of Serotypes Causing Invasive Pneumococcal Disease in Unvaccinated and Vaccinated Populations

A statistical tool to predict the relative frequency of different serotypes among disease isolates in the pre- and post-Prevnar-7 eras using the limited amount of data that is widely available, demonstrating that the pneumococcal population follows a somewhat predictable pattern even after vaccination.

Pneumococcal Carriage and Invasive Disease in Children Before Introduction of the 13-valent Conjugate Vaccine: Comparison With the Era Before 7-valent Conjugate Vaccine

Serotype distribution among NP and IPD isolates in Atlanta has shifted to non-PCV7 serotypes; 19A was the leading serotype for both, highlighting the potential direct and indirect benefits anticipated by implementation of PCV13 in the community.

Using pneumococcal carriage data to monitor postvaccination changes in invasive disease.

Whether data from nasopharyngeal carriage studies can be used to accurately monitor post-PCV changes in the incidence of invasive pneumococcal disease (IPD) among children under 5 years of age is evaluated.

Dynamic models of pneumococcal carriage and the impact of the Heptavalent Pneumococcal Conjugate Vaccine on invasive pneumococcal disease

This analysis suggests that a PCV vaccination programme would eradicate vaccine serotypes from circulation, however, the increase in carriage of non-vaccine serotypes, and the consequent increase in invasive disease, could reduce, negate or outweigh the benefit.

Optimal Serotype Compositions for Pneumococcal Conjugate Vaccination under Serotype Replacement

A ready-to-use quantitative tool is presented to investigate the implications of serotype replacement on the net effectiveness of vaccination against invasive pneumococcal disease (IPD) and to guide in the selection of optimal vaccine serotype compositions.

Indirect effect of conjugate vaccine on adult carriage of Streptococcus pneumoniae: an explanation of trends in invasive pneumococcal disease.

Pediatric vaccination with PCV7 has resulted in decreasedPCV7-type pneumococcal carriage among adults and helps to explain recent decreases in the rate of PCV 7-type invasive pneumococCal disease among adults.

Serotype replacement in disease after pneumococcal vaccination