The Republicans Should Pray for Rain: Weather, Turnout, and Voting in U.S. Presidential Elections

@article{Gomez2007TheRS,
  title={The Republicans Should Pray for Rain: Weather, Turnout, and Voting in U.S. Presidential Elections},
  author={Brad T. Gomez and Thomas G. Hansford and George A. Krause},
  journal={The Journal of Politics},
  year={2007},
  volume={69},
  pages={649 - 663}
}
The relationship between bad weather and lower levels of voter turnout is widely espoused by media, political practitioners, and, perhaps, even political scientists. Yet, there is virtually no solid empirical evidence linking weather to voter participation. This paper provides an extensive test of the claim. We examine the effect of weather on voter turnout in 14 U.S. presidential elections. Using GIS interpolations, we employ meteorological data drawn from over 22,000 U.S. weather stations to… 

Swingin' in the Rain: The Impact of Inclement Weather on Voting Behavior in U.S. Presidential Elections

While political experts have long claimed that bad weather lowers voter turnout, the impact of weather on U.S. election outcomes remains unclear. The most rigorous work to date found that

Weather conditions and voter turnout in Dutch national parliament elections, 1971–2010

It is found that the weather parameters indeed affect voter turnout, and a 10-degree-Celsius increase in temperature correlates with an increase of almost one percent in overall turnout.

ARE VOTERS IRRATIONAL ? THE UNEDUCATED AND PARTISAN ONES ARE

This paper uses state-level election returns and individual-level survey data to show that American voters have systematically punished the incumbent party for extreme weather in presidential

Liberals should pray for rain: weather, opportunity costs of voting and electoral outcomes in South Korea

  • W. Kang
  • Environmental Science
    Political Science
  • 2019
ABSTRACT Studies suggest that rainfall on an election day benefits the Republican Party in the United States and conservative parties in Western Europe. A common explanation is that marginal voters,

Rain, Elections and Money: The Impact of Voter Turnout on Distributive Policy Outcomes in Japan

Does voter turnout affect policy outcomes? This long-standing question has been re-visited recently with close empirical scrutiny. These studies, however, commonly suffer from a problem of omitting

Why Should the Republicans Pray for Rain? Electoral Consequences of Rainfall Revisited

Existing studies—most importantly, Gomez, Hansford, and Krause—provide empirical support for an idea often embraced by popular media: The vote share of the Republican Party (as the percentage of

Weather conditions and political party vote share in Dutch national parliament elections, 1971–2010

It is found that the weather parameters affect the election results in a statistically and politically significant way.

Weather, Mood, and Voting: An Experimental Analysis of the Effect of Weather Beyond Turnout

Theoretical and empirical studies show that inclement weather on an election day reduces turnout, potentially swinging the results of the election. Psychology studies, however, show that weather

Voting Costs and Voter Turnout in Competitive Elections

In the United States, competitive elections are often concentrated in particular places. These places attract disproportionate attention from news media and election campaigns. Yet many voting
...

References

SHOWING 1-10 OF 50 REFERENCES

Weather and Voter Turnout: Kentucky Primary and General Elections, 1990-2000

Weather and politics are seldom discussed together. Yet, conventional wisdom has long held that inclement election-day weather (e.g., rain or low temperature) inhibits voter participation. While this

Does rain help the Republicans? Theory and evidence on turnout and the vote

Conventional political wisdom holds that inclement weather on election day reduces turnout, and helps elect Republican candidates. Analysis of National Climatic Data Center weather records and

What if Everyone Voted? Simulating the Impact of Increased Turnout in Senate Elections

The conventional wisdom among journalists and politicians is that higher turnout would benefit Democrats, although extant scholarly research suggests otherwise. We adopt a new approach to assessing

Partisan Effects of Voter Turnout in Senatorial and Gubernatorial Elections

Conventional wisdom holds that higher turnout favors Democrats. Previous studies of this hypothesis rely on presidential and House elections or on survey data, but senatorial and gubernatorial

The Myth of the Vanishing Voter

The apparent decline in voter participation in national elections since 1972 is an illusion created by using the Bureau of the Census estimate of the voting-age population as the denominator of the

Voter Registration and Turnout in the United States

  • B. Highton
  • Political Science
    Perspectives on Politics
  • 2004
In a democracy, voting is the most fundamental act of political participation and therefore holds a central location in the study of political behavior. One significant research tradition focuses on

The Effect of Registration Laws on Voter Turnout

After the drastic relaxation of voter registration requirements in the 1960s, do present state laws keep people away from the polls? More specifically, which provisions have how much effect on what

Does Heavy Turnout Help Democrats in Presidential Elections?

There is conventional political wisdom that high voter turnout in a U.S. presidential election advantages the majority party. Because the Democratic party has been the dominant party in recent

Follow The Leader: Theory And Evidence On Political Participation

This paper presents an empirical and theoretical investigation of the strategic components to political participation. Using state-by-state voting data for the eleven U.S. Presidential elections,

Rational Choice and Turnout

Turning out to vote is the most common and important act of political participation in any democracy. Voting is also less well understood and explained empirically than other political acts engaged