The Predictive Content of the Interest Rate Term Spread for Future Economic Growth

@inproceedings{Dotsey1998ThePC,
  title={The Predictive Content of the Interest Rate Term Spread for Future Economic Growth},
  author={Michael Dotsey},
  year={1998}
}
  • Michael Dotsey
  • Published 1998
P redicting economic activity is important for numerous reasons. It is important for business firms because it aids in deciding how much capacity will be needed to meet future demand. It is important for various government agencies when forecasting budgetary surpluses or deficits. And it is important for the Federal Reserve (the Fed) in deciding the stance of current monetary policy. One set of variables that are potentially useful in forecasting economic activity are financial variables… CONTINUE READING
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